Bundesliga Tips – Big man to make a big impact


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Super Sasa to strike again

Stuttgart v Augsburg
Saturday 19 March, 14:30
Live on Betfair Live Video

In a season plagued by injury, Stuttgart are fighting hard to retain their Bundesliga status. They were without last season’s top scorer Sasa Kalajdzic for four months because of a shoulder injury, and having been denied the services of wing wizard Silas for most of the campaign because of a knee injury, his return only a lasted a few games before he dislocated his shoulder and was ruled out for the rest of the term. It’s also worth remembering that livewire forward Nicolas Gonzalez was sold to Fiorentina in the summer.

The return of 6ft 7in Austrian Kalajdzic might just have been in the nick of time. He scored the winner in a 3-2 comeback win against Borussia Mönchengladbach, and last weekend he grabbed a last-gasp leveller in a deserved 1-1 draw at Union Berlin. All three of his league goals have been set up by swashbuckling left-back Borna Sosa, and their understanding could be the key to Stuttgart’s survival. Last weekend’s draw took the Swabians out of the automatic dropzone and moved them into the playoff spot.

Augsburg had a weekend off after their game with Mainz was postponed, and they know a win in this game gives them breathing space in the relegation scrap. They dug out a 1-0 win at Arminia Bielefeld a fortnight ago, but they may find life tougher against a more dynamic attack.

I think Stuttgart are way too short for the win at evens (they have only won five league games all season), but I will back Kalajdzic to score at any time at 2.56/4 on the Sportsbook. Augsburg have leaked 22 goals in 13 games on the road, and I think Kalajdzic is in the kind of form that can cause them problems.

Fireworks in Furth

Greuther Furth v Freiburg
Saturday 19 March, 14:30
Live on Betfair Live Video

It doesn’t make a lot of sense, but little old Freiburg are still in the mix for Champions League qualification. A club with a modest budget and a modest outlook secured a thrilling 3-2 win over Wolfsburg last weekend, and they are only out of the top four by virtue of goal difference, with just eight matchdays remaining.

Given that they don’t have a top-class centre-forward to hang their hat on, Freiburg’s ability to score goals is impressive. Vincenzo Grifo bagged a brace last week, including a trademark free-kick, while in-demand defender Nico Schlotterbeck thrashed in a spectacular winner. Freiburg have scored at least twice in six of their last ten matches, and if you look at their season as a whole, an Over 2.5 Goals bet has landed in 15 of their 26 games.

Greuther Furth’s six-game unbeaten stretch at home was shredded last weekend, as they were hammered 6-1 by a rampant RB Leipzig. Goals backers have had fun with the rock-bottom Clover Leaves – 19 of their 26 league matches have featured three goals or more.

Furth are going to be relegated, but they’re going down swinging. I can’t believe that Over 2.5 Goals is priced at 1.855/6 here, so that’s the route I’m taking.

Cash in with Christopher

RB Leipzig v Eintracht Frankfurt
Sunday 20 March, 14:30
Live on Sky Sports and Betfair Live Video

Regular readers will know that I have been giving RB Leipzig forward Christopher Nkunku rave reviews for a long time, and his first ever call-up to the senior France squad is thoroughly deserved. Nkunku ran riot in last weekend’s 6-1 win at Greuther Furth, scoring a goal (tipped in this column) and setting up two others. The former PSG player now has 15 league goals and nine assists this term.

Leipzig are on the charge on several fronts. They are the favourites to lift the DFB Cup, they are into the quarter-finals of the Europa League and they are in pole position to take fourth spot in the Bundesliga. Coach Domenico Tedesco has been a revelation, and his side has scored 38 goals across the last 13 matches in all competitions.

Opponents Eintracht Frankfurt will be drained by their Europa League efforts against Betis, so I’ll back Nkunku to score here at 2.265/4. He has found the net in nine of his last 13 competitive appearances.