Back McDonald to cover handicap against Zverev
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Medvedev eases past Murray
The likes of Daniil Medvedev, Stefanos Tsitsipas and Carlos Alcaraz were among last night’s winners in Florida and progressed into round three, with Medvedev leaving Andy Murray with plenty to find. The Scotsman didn’t create a single break point opportunity and won just 41% of points in the match, picking up a mere six games in a straight-set defeat.
However, Felix Auger-Aliassime did exit, with a loss to Miomir Kecmanovic, while Dan Evans was also ousted with the Brit failing to take his break point chances in a loss to Yoshihito Nishioka.
Jenson Brooksby continued his rapid upward curve with a straightforward win over Nikoloz Basilashvili, and it seems like simply a matter of time before the young American is challenging far more illustrious opponents in the latter stages of big tournaments.
Action in Miami gets underway at 16:00 UK time today with a more spread out schedule – just eight matches on tonight’s card from the bottom half of the draw.
Getting proceedings underway is Cameron Norrie, with the Brit (the only one now left in the draw following Evans and Murray’s exits) a very strong 1.171/6 favourite to get the better of Hugo Gaston.
Zverev price looks short given recent issues
Also very strong favourites are Nick Kyrgios, who faces Fabio Fognini in something of a battle of the enigmas, and Alexander Zverev, who meets Mackenzie McDonald.
The German hasn’t convinced of late, and dropped a set to Borna Coric in his opener, which was his opponent’s second match in the last year. If at his best, Zverev is justified at this price, but in my view, it’s far from a given against a pretty competent hard courter.
McDonald has done ok this season, with his losses primarily coming as an underdog against strong opposition (Rublev/Khachanov/De Minaur/Karatsev) and also lost to Zverev indoors (prior to Zverev’s Acapulco incident) in Montpellier at the start of February.
That day, McDonald was still pretty competitive in a match with few break point chances and I like the 4.5 game handicap line on the American at around 1.855/6, which we should be able to achieve in the run-up to the match, which is last on the schedule tonight.
Sinner favourite over Carreno-Busta
In other matches, the Cerundolo duo are both heavy underdogs to continue their progress. With both having more of a pedigree as clay-courters, Francisco takes on Gael Monfils, while Juan Manuel meets Frances Tiafoe.
Both are improving nicely and it wouldn’t be a huge shock if they’re at least competitive tonight.
Finally, arguably the best match on the schedule tonight is Jannik Sinner versus Pablo Carreno-Busta, with the Italian a 1.564/7 favourite to make the fourth round.
This seems about right to me, with 12 month hard court data giving Sinner the edge – primarily via return numbers – and there looks to be a similar ability differential based on this year’s data as well. However, Carreno-Busta is still an above-average hard courter and should provide a decent test to Sinner today.